POLICY OPTIMIZATION FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SECURITY: DATA-DRIVEN COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

This study investigates how policy optimization shapes sustainable energy security in a comparative context between the United States and South Asia, responding to the problem that many energy security reforms are selected through narrative judgment rather than evidence-backed prioritization. The purpose was to test a quantitative model linking Policy Optimization (PO) to Sustainable Energy Security (SES) and to identify which policy levers most strongly predict energy security outcomes across two real-world cloud and enterprise informed cases (one U.S. case and one South Asia case). Using a quantitative, cross sectional, case-based design, data were collected through structured five-point Likert instruments from 420 stakeholders drawn from energy enterprises, regulators, and institutional policy units (n = 210 per case). Key independent variables were six PO dimensions: regulatory quality and enforcement, renewable integration policy strength, grid modernization policy, energy efficiency and demand side policy, affordability and equity policy, and climate resilience policy. The dependent construct was SES, measured through reliability and resilience, affordability and access, sustainability and acceptability, and supply risk management. The analysis plan applied reliability testing, independent samples t tests for case comparison, Pearson correlation to assess association, and multiple regression to estimate predictive effects with controls. Internal consistency was strong (Cronbach’s alpha = .91 for PO and .89 for SES). Case results showed higher PO in the United States than South Asia (M = 3.74, SD = 0.61 vs M = 3.21, SD = 0.67) and higher SES (M = 3.86, SD = 0.58 vs M = 3.12, SD = 0.63). The largest SES gaps were observed in reliability and resilience (4.01 vs 3.05) and supply risk management (4.03 vs 3.13). Overall, PO was positively associated with SES (r = .62, p < .001). In the pooled regression, policy levers significantly explained SES variance (Adjusted R² = .54; F(10, 409) = 50.12; p < .001), with grid modernization emerging as the strongest predictor (β = .31), followed by regulatory quality (β = .24) and affordability and equity (β = .21). Region specific models indicated different leverage points: the United States was most driven by grid modernization (β = .35) and regulatory quality (β = .22), while South Asia was most driven by affordability and equity (β = .29), regulatory quality (β = .26), and climate resilience (β = .20). The findings imply that energy security gains can be accelerated by prioritizing enforceable governance and grid modernization in mature systems, while emphasizing affordability, governance capacity, and resilience delivery in constrained systems.